This year has been exceptionally volatile for US equities, with the S&P 500 down over 3 percent on 8 days. That’s over 3 standard deviations (1 percentage point apiece) away from the long run mean for daily returns (+0.03 pct). To show just...
You have probably seen and/or heard dozens of market commentators discuss their views on where the S&P 500 bottoms in the current market cycle. Some say we are at the lows right now. Others think the index might make its lows at...
Today we will take the entire Morning Briefing to discuss the results of last week’s “DataTrek Near Term Outlook Survey”. Thanks to all who took the time to complete it! A few background points to set the stage: We had a total of 610...
Whether or not Federal Reserve monetary policy eventually causes an official US “recession”, every US equity investor must have a perspective on two key questions: The first relates to US corporate earnings: how bad will they get in an economic...
How can we tell when US large cap stocks have hit near term highs and lows? Whether you are a trader or investor, this has been a critical issue all year. Equity market volatility has been very high, making it difficult to know when to lighten...
The most important macroeconomic question facing investors today is “Can the Federal Reserve tame inflation without causing a recession?” As much as US stock prices are down this year, they do not reflect ANY recession risk. Here’s...
