Outsized Vol, Finding a Low
By admin_45 in Blog

Outsized Vol, Finding a Low

This year has been exceptionally volatile for US equities, with the S&P 500 down over 3 percent on 8 days. That’s over 3 standard deviations (1 percentage point apiece) away from the long run mean for daily returns (+0.03 pct). To show just...

How the Pros Call The Bottom
By admin_45 in Blog

How the Pros Call The Bottom

You have probably seen and/or heard dozens of market commentators discuss their views on where the S&P 500 bottoms in the current market cycle.  Some say we are at the lows right now.  Others think the index might make its lows at...

Near Term Outlook Survey Results
By admin_45 in Blog

Near Term Outlook Survey Results

Today we will take the entire Morning Briefing to discuss the results of last week’s “DataTrek Near Term Outlook Survey”. Thanks to all who took the time to complete it! A few background points to set the stage: We had a total of 610...

Only 2 Things Matter to Stocks Right Now
By admin_45 in Blog

Only 2 Things Matter to Stocks Right Now

Whether or not Federal Reserve monetary policy eventually causes an official US “recession”, every US equity investor must have a perspective on two key questions: The first relates to US corporate earnings: how bad will they get in an economic...

Spotting Entry Points With the VIX
By admin_45 in Blog

Spotting Entry Points With the VIX

How can we tell when US large cap stocks have hit near term highs and lows? Whether you are a trader or investor, this has been a critical issue all year.  Equity market volatility has been very high, making it difficult to know when to lighten...