With that preface, on to the show … What is a reasonable expectation for long run US equity returns? The market history we all learned in finance class or on the job provides one approach to answering that question: Since 1928 the S&P 500...
Four grab-bag topics today: #1: Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday broke little new ground, and he waited until the very end to give his color on asset purchase tapering and the future path of interest rates. Here are the relevant 2...
Two Data items today: 1: US Treasury debt issuance and yields. We’ve heard concerns from clients that the Treasury will have to ramp up issuance over the rest of 2021 and this will cause a backup in yields. We are sharpening our pencils on...
Two Data Items today: #1: 10-year Treasury yields, which have started to show signs of life again. After going from 0.9 percent at the start of 2021 to 1.75 pct at the end of March, they pulled all the way back to 1.17 pct at the start of this...
Equity market volatility reminds us of the old saw “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” For example, the CBOE VIX Index, aka the “Fear Gauge”, is a regular topic of conversation even though very few...
Two Data Topics today: #1: US back to school shopping season is either happening very late this year or American consumers are becoming a bit wary. This is a Google Trends chart of US query volumes for the term “back to school” over the last 5...
