March S&P Outlook After Bad Start
By admin_45 in Blog

March S&P Outlook After Bad Start

The S&P 500 has officially ended the first two months of the year in negative territory, a historically uncommon occurrence. So what does that mean for the balance of the year? Three points: #1: The S&P has ended lower in BOTH January...

S&P 500: What Happens After Bad Start
By admin_45 in Blog

S&P 500: What Happens After Bad Start

After such a volatile trading session and with the S&P 500 down 10.0 percent year-to-date, today we want to reprise our work on how US equities tend to perform during poor returning years. We have three points on this topic: #1: History...

Fed Funds, S&P Earnings, Russian Stocks
By admin_45 in Blog

Fed Funds, S&P Earnings, Russian Stocks

Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The latest Fed Funds Futures-based probabilities for FOMC interest rate policy this year (link to CME FedWatch tool below): For the upcoming March 16th meeting, Futures still give 33 percent odds of a 50 basis...

Where is Fair Value on the S&P 500?
By admin_45 in Blog

Where is Fair Value on the S&P 500?

Today was a bad one for US stocks and the close was especially troublesome, so let’s talk about what’s going on and what to do from here. Two points: #1: Based on the macro inputs that have moved markets this year, this should not have been a...