The Fed’s Worst Case Scenario

The biggest news from the US Federal Reserve this week won’t be the results of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Chair Powell and other Fed officials have already conditioned markets to expect a …

The Price Where Oil Becomes a Problem

Over the last few years we have noticed that the shrill tone so common in social media has drifted over to person-to-person email as well. For example, a few weeks ago …

Comparisons Are Odious

In our daily “Data” section we typically analyze the numbers that create and support market narratives. The usual themes of our work: there’s no such thing as a perfect dataset and …

The Seinfeld Market

Over the last few days we’ve been tempted to call the current US equity investment environment “The Seinfeld Market” – a show about nothing.Despite a series of oddball macro antics …

JOLTS: Labor Market Still Strong

After a disappointing jobs report on Friday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) couldn’t have come at a better time to look under the hood of the US …

May’s Jobs Report: A Tipping Point?

Whenever we hear a Fed speaker talk about rate policy just ahead of the release of important economic data, we always assume they know the impending data. So when Chair Powell …

China’s Electric Vehicle Glut

For all its seeming complexity, the global auto industry is actually a pretty simple business to manage: Design and build vehicles people want to buy so you can charge more …

US Budget Deficits: Breaking All The Rules

US Federal budget deficits have always tended to be cyclical, spiking during recessions and diminishing when the economy is running strongly again.Given that the vast majority of Federal receipts come …