The S&P 500 has officially ended the first two months of the year in negative territory, a historically uncommon occurrence. So what does that mean for the balance of the year? Three points: #1: The S&P has ended lower in BOTH January...
Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: Starting off on a positive point, US tax refund season is going very well. These remittances are often the largest lump sum payments US households receive in a given year. Their size and timing can affect...
After such a volatile trading session and with the S&P 500 down 10.0 percent year-to-date, today we want to reprise our work on how US equities tend to perform during poor returning years. We have three points on this topic: #1: History...
Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The most straightforward way to bring down US inflation is to have a recession. That’s an awkward observation for a few reasons. First, no one wants to see the American economy contract, especially...
Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The latest Fed Funds Futures-based probabilities for FOMC interest rate policy this year (link to CME FedWatch tool below): For the upcoming March 16th meeting, Futures still give 33 percent odds of a 50 basis...
Today was a bad one for US stocks and the close was especially troublesome, so let’s talk about what’s going on and what to do from here. Two points: #1: Based on the macro inputs that have moved markets this year, this should not have been a...
