“Submitted by Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research
Yesterday’s market action was a rather underwhelming performance given the trade war truce between Presidents Trump and Xi over the weekend, but it was still up over 1% so we’ll take it. We closely track up/down +1% daily returns for the S&P 500 because it’s a useful and more telling barometer of volatility than just looking at the VIX level. Here’s a rundown on the most recent data updated through today, and what it means going forward as we’ve officially entered the last month of the quarter and year:
- The S&P 500 has risen or fallen by 1% or more during 19 trading sessions this quarter (20 including Tuesday). That’s above the Q4 average of 14 since 1958 (first full year of data), with still 17 more days when the market is open this year.
- US stocks have seen a snapback in volatility over the past two months, as there were no 1% days in Q3. That sleepy action was unusual as a zero 1% move quarter has only happened in four other periods since 1958 (one in Q4 2017 and the balance in the early-mid 1960s). That said, there have been more up +1% days (11) than down days (8) this quarter.
- For the year so far, the S&P has gained or lost +1% on 55 days. The annual average is 53 since 1958, so this has been an above-average volatile year with still a month of trading left. Even still, there have been more up +1% days (31) versus down days (24)”….
Read the whole piece here on Zero Hedge!