With Q4 GDP on the economic calendar for Friday, today we want to take a last look at what two regional Federal Reserve models have to say on the topic. Both the New York and Atlanta Feds run algorithmic analyses that estimate economic activity...
Equity investors have a love-hate relationship with the concept of volatility. In the “Love” camp: as a matter of practice (if not theory), you need some volatility to see asset price appreciation. Plus, volatility is a sign that markets are...
One central mystery behind crypto currencies is “Who owns/trades them?” Here’s one way to look at it: By one estimate there are 22.4 million bitcoin wallets, and since there are only 17 million bitcoins outstanding, the math says the average...
We recently completed an analysis of rolling 20-year total returns for the S&P 500, and the results were not what we anticipated. You probably know that the very long average return for US stocks is 11%, and a look at average results from 1928...
In yesterday’s note we reviewed the first part of our recent conference presentation about bitcoin, outlining real world objects that can help explain its rise and relevance. In case you didn’t see it, here is a brief summary: Over the last 15...
On Friday we gave a talk about bitcoin to a group of investment professionals. The audience ranged from large state pension fund managers, CFAs, noted academics and even a Federal Reserve president. There was enough intellectual wattage in the...
