Washington Post: “Even Bond Traders Don’t Believe This Rally”

Excerpt from the Washington Post quoting DataTrek’s Nick Colas:

…. ” And then there’s the pickup truck indicator. DataTrek Research outlined in a research note to clients on Tuesday that sales of large pickup trucks “remain surprisingly robust.” “The key buyers here — small businesses — clearly still feel positive about their near-term outlook,” DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote. “Yes, lower gas prices are helping, but this is one group that knows such trends can reverse quickly. If they are still buying big pickups — and they are — then things aren’t as bad as last month’s sell-off indicated.” Light trucks surged to about 70 percent of the U.S. sales mix in 2018, an unprecedented level, according to Bloomberg News.

Colas noted that in late 2007 and early 2008 the “large pickup truck indicator” foretold the deep recession to come. Sales started to slow in the fourth quarter of 2007 and by late in the following first quarter, sales were down 22 percent. “That was all you needed to know that the U.S. economy was slowing quickly,” Colas wrote”….

Read the full article here in the Washington Post!

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