Gold… You’re So Money…

Back in 2011 at a Humphrey-Hawkins meeting, House member Ron Paul asked Fed Chair Ben Bernanke “Do you think gold is money?” The answer was “No… It’s a precious metal.” Paul, …

What A Year This Month Has Been

Back when I worked at SAC, every trader could see the real time P&L for every other person in the room. Once in a while, the entire organization would sync up, …

Taxing The Super-Rich: Easier Said…

US individual income tax rates have become an important topic of debate in American politics, with both members of the new Democrat-controlled House and presidential hopefuls pitching changes to the …

Record Tech Lobby Spending in 2018

As calls for more tech regulation grow louder, some big US tech companies are responding with record levels of lobby spending. Facebook, Alphabet, and Amazon, for example, spent more on lobbying …

US Earnings Recession: An Update

Last week we highlighted the continuing decline in Wall Street analysts’ expectations for first half 2019 corporate earnings. The upshot of our findings was that numbers are coming down at a …

Red Flags of EU Unemployment

The flaws inherent in aggregated data are a recurring theme in this section, and today we have a great case study: European unemployment rates. By the headline numbers, one would think …

US vs. Int’l Stocks: Pain Thresholds

If you thought last quarter’s US stock market volatility was tough, just consider what happened to emerging market equities. A few stats to put this in perspective: The S&P 500 was …

Options Market: Stay Cautious on Stocks

My first Wall Street mentor, a grizzled sell-side Industrials analyst, would often tell me “message times repetition equals franchise”. Find a unique and investable insight, and then examine it from every …

US GDP (Right) Now Is Fine

Chalk up one more victim of the US government shutdown: the latest guesstimate on Q4 2018 GDP from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. The problem sits with the US Census Bureau, …

Facial Recognition: The Biggest Disruptor

There’s a Facebook meme at the moment called the “10 year challenge” where users post pictures of themselves from a decade ago and now. Neither Jessica nor I will be taking …