Bitcoin/Stock Correlations: An Update

Today we update our statistical work on the relationship between bitcoin’s price and the S&P 500. The notion that bitcoin is a “Stub” asset (the riskiest piece of a capital structure) …

Learning to Love Volatility

Of everything that impacts the capital markets, behavioral biases are often the most underappreciated. We try to keep this in mind as it can provide insight into the bigger picture. Take …

Long Term Look at US Equity Volatility

US equity market volatility has returned, so today we take a big step back and examine long-term historical trends here. Specifically, we want to address two questions we hear a lot: …

The Most Important Number to US Stocks

We’ve come to the conclusion that US stocks are keying off one interest rate-related number, but it is not the US Treasury 10 Year yield that is so commonly mentioned. Yes, …

Near Term Market Direction: Our Call

“Wall Street stock analysts? Meh. In a bull market, you don’t need them; in a bear market, they will kill you.” As a long time brokerage single-stock analyst, that saying has …

Is the Market Done Correcting?

DataTrek’s Nick Colas was on CNBC yesterday with Kelly Evans, Bill Griffeth, Michael Santoli, and Kenny Polcari talking about the recent market recovery.  Lots of grounded covered in a short time. …

Are Unicorns Overvalued?

Startups strive for the magic $1 billion valuation to become a so called “unicorn”, but even when they do, is it always justified? In many cases, not so, at least according …